Still Falling Down - Public Affairs

Apropos of Nothing, my $0.02 on Detroit

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:29:23 -0500

The "big 3" automakers are no longer the real US auto production base. Honda, Nissan, Toyota (and their "hidden" brands) make cars for the US market here, and their sales are a significant part of domestic auto production.

The big 3 probably make more US-sold cars in Mexico and Canada then the Japanese make in the US.

And yes, I know that "make" doesn't mean anything when parts and intermediate assemblies criss-cross the world several times before final assembly.

The UAW is terrified of the manufacturers seeking bankruptcy protection because it's the closest the mfrs will ever get to rewriting work rules, pay scales and no-show job requirements. And all of those factors have one underlying concept: dues collection (and that cash doesn't go to retiree health benefits, either).

If Ford, Chrysler, GM "go away", then their brands, intellectual property (think of the hundreds of thousands of patents they hold), usable production capacity, and employable, productive people (minus their union contracts) will be snapped up at auction by the hedge funds that still have cash (yup there are a few, and I bet you could raise 4 billion in about 20 minutes to go shopping at a Detroit fire sale) or other capital-flush enterprises. Christ, if someone can invest $37million in a blog (Huffington Post), there must be capital for an automaker.

Isn't a hedge fund or Japanese manufacturer-led bailout at $0.25 on the dollar better than a runaway train government bailout at $5 on the dollar (how much actually has to be collected from us for each dollar paid out in a bailout)? Which will result in more "real" production of US autos and a better workforce and supply chain?

Yes, hedge funds are corrupt and leaky, just like a Federal agency, but they are much more efficient at it, and they didn't point a gun at anyone's head to get the money.

Finally, cars made by Detroit suck. Bottom line, they fall apart, they burn gas like there's a royalty arrangement involved, they lack features, and they're just not as much fun to drive. If a non-Detroit car sucks, it's likely that the suck factors will be addressed in the near future, OR, it's OK, because you still got value for money.

Which products should the market encourage?
Bzzt. Sorry. Too late. The market spoke long ago.

Thanks for listening. When I try to talk to my cats about this, they just get up and walk away.

Come on! Let's hear how utterly, completely, and thoroughly wrong I am! Speak up!

A chance to make the commuter tax productive

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:17:45 -0400

Mayor Bloomberg has used the financial crisis as an opportunity to once again bring up the issue of a commuter tax.

The State Assembly (read Sheldon Silver, who represents a district in NYC) is willing to consider the idea.
The State Senate (read Dean Skelos, who represents a Long Island district) appears unwilling to even discuss it.

I guess that leaves David Patterson as the tie-breaker.

While drastic spending cuts would be preferable to any tax increase, maybe we can come up with a commuter tax that isn't a tax per se.

Let's collect the commuter tax at the bridges, tunnels, and to a much lesser extent, on the suburban rail and bus lines.

I've mentioned this before, but let's trot it out again.

Close the free Manhattan crossings inbound to private automobile traffic from 5AM to 3PM on weekdays. Force drivers in their own cars to pay to get into the city during working hours.
Increase the inbound toll on the remaining crossings to $40 during those times. This should be the main source of the commuter tax, and at the same time, create an incentive towards mass transit instead of the disincentive that exists now.
Eliminate on-street parking in Manhattan (below 135th Street) for private automobiles from 7AM to 8PM. Get the drivers who are willing to pay the higher toll into parking garages. Then hit them with an additional 10% sales tax on top of the existing sales tax. Manhattan residents who park monthly get a 100% exemption.

Add a 10% surcharge onto MTA and New Jersey Transit suburban line tickets coming into New York during those times. This should make up for the loss in tolls due to the increased prices, but not enough to offset the incentive.

Eliminate the outbound tolls. Get the vehicles out of Manhattan as quickly as possible.

The benefits to all this: Reduced traffic, which means lower costs for the movement of people and goods, cleaner air (reducing the cost of failing to meet federal pollution standards), reduced road maintenance costs, and best of all, fewer single-passenger SUVs blowing their horns at red lights.

I just loooove talking to myself.

The PATH and the Second Avenue Subway

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:08:20 -0500

When the Hudson and Manhattan Railroad was laying out where its tracks and stations would go, the plans included a connection to the East Side via Astor Place and then on to Grand Central Station. This segment of the lines was never built, although a short stub of maybe 50 feet was built just east of the 9th Street Station.

Now comes the Second Avenue Subway with construction contracts about to be awarded. How about completing Mr. McAdoo's plans and building the extension out to Astor Place with transfers to the number 6 line and then Second Avenue?

That's a pretty short line from 6th Avenue to 4th Avenue and 2nd Avenue. Even the Port Authority should be able to manage a project like that.

Looking ahead in SCO v. IBM

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 08:07:44 -0400

So, as SCO faces additional setbacks in the months to come, losing more motions
and receiving additional sanctions, losing appeals, not to mention being faced
with the Everest of evidence that their claim of any kind of proprietary rights
to Unix and it's derivatives and "children in spirit" is wishful
thinking at best, the thought of settlement negotiations arises.

So, kiddies, let's hear your suggestions for IBM's counsel. What should they
throw on the table to help SCO and friends avoid the penalties and costs they
face by losing at trial.

I'll start it off:

No costs, no penalties (to SCO or it's lawyers), not one dollar. They can stay
in business (if you can call it a business, whatever it is that they sell).

All they have to do is place ALL (I mean every last line of code, piece of
documentation, even their logo) under the GPL.

That's all. No big deal.

Magistrate Judge Strikes Bulk of SCO's claims against IBM

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 17:53:50 -0400

In her ruling on IBM's motion to strike a portion of SCO's claims, Judge Wells said that she did not consider the merits... yet. All that she was ruling on was SCO's adherence to discovery rules, and especially the orders she issued on discovery to both sides.

The time has not yet come. the Judge has said,
To speak of so many things.
Of methods and concepts,
And how The SCO Group sings.
But the time will come for legal precepts,
And whether pigs have wings.

That's when the rest of this nonsense will be thrown out.

(sorry, mr. dodgson)

Gay-marriage ban failure: intentional?

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Wed, 07 Jun 2006 12:55:32 -0400

The Senate has voted not to move forward with a Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. On the face of it, this seems like a defeat for President Bush and his right-wing strategists.

But is it?

An amendment to the Constitution requires a two-thirds majority in both houses in order to be presented to the legislatures of the various States where it then requires a three-quarters majority. It takes a long time for all 50 States to ratify or reject an amendment.

So there's no chance that this amendment would come anywhere near ratification (much less effectiveness) until long after the next congressional and presidential elections. Maybe not even for the elections after those. The proposed Equal Rights Amendment expired after 7 years before it could be ratified.

So what was behind this late-term push? Did the White House expect this to fail? Could it be possible that the White House and the Senate GOP leadership agreed for it to fail before the the amendment was even presented? That senators whose upcoming re-election was expected to be close could engineer their votes to appeal to the swing voters in their constituencies? That the White House (as chief fundraiser for the next GOP elections) could go back to the right-wing Christians who provided significant funding over the last few elections and say "Hey, we did what we could!. You need to support us even more strongly now. See how the evil influences of the Left and the Democrats are affecting even loyal GOP senators!"?

No way. They couldn't be that duplicitous, could they?

FEMA shows what causes disasters

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 12:21:30 -0400

A graphic (see below) on the FEMA website seems to show that the next step after Preparedness is Disaster.

Jeremy Zawodny has an entry that talks about this, but I think Jeremy is slightly off when he describes disaster leading to response, which leads to recovery, etc.

If you look carefully at this image, you will see that, except for Preparedness, in each of the phases of this diagram the arrows miss the next phase. Preparedness is the only phase which leads directly to the next one, which is Disaster.

Maybe the artist knew exactly what they were doing.

Update:

Garr Reynolds takes all the fun out of this by actually doing a professional analysis of the image and it's failure as a graphical presentation of FEMA's mission.

Great quote, though: "Powerpoint should do no harm" (Edward Tufte)

MTA looks to buy some votes with your money

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Wed, 19 Oct 2005 08:39:38 -0400

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has generated a proposal to cut subway and bus fares by 50% between Thanksgiving and New Year's Eve. According to the Authority's 2006 Financial Plan, as a result of the Gap Closing Program, their New York City Transit division will save $43.7 million with a reduction of 432 positions. These positions are involved in the delivery of new subway cars, the design of new electrical and signalling systems, and, of course, station, car and bus maintenance.

"Gap Closing Program"? Why does a organization with a billion-dollar surplus need a Gap Closing Program? Or is there really a surplus? Will we hear next year about the deficit? Sounds a little too Enron/Worldcom/Adelphia to me.

The money New York City residents have been paying in increased fares, which we are told is needed for system upkeep, will go to subsidize the tourist invasion of Manhattan during the holidays, but also to buy your votes on the Transportation Bond Act. I happen to be in favor of this bond issue, since I haven't been able to find where they've hidden the line items which will actually go to operational expenses instead of capital expenditures. As a rule, though, I just don't like vote buying.

So, the trains, buses and stations will be dirtier, the new trains will be delayed another year, signalling improvements will take a few more years to design and even more years to install. And we'll take on more debt.

So, thanks MTA Executive Director Katherine Lapp, for a thoughtful proposal. And I'm sure the suburban commuters (of which, Katherine, you would be one if you didn't have an Authority provided car and driver) whose rides are subsidized at the expense of city dwellers will continue to thank you. Oh, and how's that 22% salary increase from Pete Kalikow holding up?

Busy over in the City Council, aren't they?

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Wed, 21 Sep 2005 09:05:32 -0400

The members of the New York City Council obviously need a hobby.
Introduction No. 563 of the New York City Council attempts to regulate the times at which movies can start.

Council Members Brewer, Gerson, James, Koppell, Liu, Nelson, Palma, Perkins, Seabrook, Weprin and Reed are so concerned about the barrage of commercials, promotions and other unrelated media, that they are riding to the rescue of the New York moviegoer. According to this proposed law:

Once the consumer has purchased his or her theater pass, he or she has also acquired the right to view the motion picture free of additional advertising.

Huh? I must have missed that section of the US Constitution. How do rights enter into this?

The introduction goes on to threaten penalties of $1,000.00 for each advertisement which does not contain the actual time at which the movie itself begins. Even if the advertisement did not plan to include any showing times. How about letting people vote with their feet, instead of imposing fines on theatre owners who will simply view it as another cost of doing business? All the fine will accomplish is to raise the price of crappy movies from $11 to $15. Thanks for the protection council members!

As long as we're discussing the rights of moviegoers, how about the right to smack the mother who brought their tired, screaming 3-year old to the PG-13 movie?

Or to wrap in his own cellophane the the jerk who takes 10 minutes to unpack the sandwich he stuffed in his pants to avoid the theatre's food police?

How much is the Weiner-dog in the window?

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 15:58:41 -0400

Haven't seen or heard much speculation on the price paid by Fernando Ferrer's campaign or the NYC Democratic Party leadership for Anthony Weiner's sudden withdrawal from the mayoral campaign. Sudden, because he had been quoted hours earlier as saying

I think a runoff wouldn't be a terrible thing.

So, what price concession?

Was this a simple quid pro quo? Did the Democrats offer Anthony a place in the Ferrer administration? If so, Anthony sold himself cheap, given the odds that Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be re-elected.

Did they threaten his future prospects as a Democratic candidate if he didn't play ball? Sounds more like the machine we all know and love here in NYC.

Say, can you tell me where to find the...

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Thu, 15 Sep 2005 21:02:52 -0400

Yahoo! carries this photo of President Bush writing a note to Condoleeza Rice during the UN Summit in New York.

His note seems to ask Rice "I may need a bathroom break?". Reuters says this note "falls short of Secretary-General Kofi Annan's vision of freedom".

Hastert shows his sensitivity - aides backpedal furiously

webmaster@stillfallingdown.com (Writer) — Fri, 02 Sep 2005 17:52:02 -0400

House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) showed the world how clueless and insensitive it's possible to become in the insular world of the federal government.

"It looks like a lot of that place could be bulldozed," the Illinois Republican said in an interview about New Orleans Wednesday with the Daily Herald of Arlington Heights, Ill.

Hastert also claimed that federal aid to New Orleans is not worth the money for just a few thousand lives.

These statements are the latest in the questionable output from the House Speaker. His most extraordinary outburst probably came last August when he accused financier George Soros of receiving money from drug cartels.In April, Haster claimed that Democrats were blocking Ethics committee hearings to prevent investigations into their own misdeeds, and not to institute needed rules changes.

Now his aides are scrambling to spin his statements. They say that he was merely trying to inject fiscal responsibility into the discussion of aid to the areas ravaged by Katrina. Given his history of shoot-from-the-hip whoppers, it's your choice whether to believe them.

I guess the House really needs someone to replace Jim Traficant.